Home / MLB Projections MLB / Brewers @ Astros MIL @ HOU

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

34-20  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, May 30 • 4:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

26-33  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Brandon Sproat
STARTING PITCHER

Brandon Sproat

#23 | Starting Pitcher
@
AJ Blubaugh
STARTING PITCHER

AJ Blubaugh

#69 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brandon Sproat None-None 6.24 -- 4.1 4
AJ Blubaugh None-None 4.42 -- 3.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
6.24 ERA Ldr 4.42
-- WHIP --
4.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 3.0
4 K (Strikeouts) 4
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
59%
📊
ASTROS
41%
BREWERS --
ASTROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 24%
Under 0 76%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BrewersMIL (-3.5) 0 AstrosHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

40.1%

Astros Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

HOU By 1-2 runs

16.3%

HOU By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4
MILWAUKEE
3
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
3
MILWAUKEE
6
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Brewers Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Astros Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Astros (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim Astros (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Sim u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 31, 2026 MIL @ HOU 2 - 0
May 30, 2026 MIL @ HOU 2 - 9
May 29, 2026 MIL @ HOU 5 - 4
May 7, 2025 HOU @ MIL 9 - 1
May 6, 2025 HOU @ MIL 3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
Houston HOU
162 ▲
Games Played
2
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.743 ▲
OPS
.582
154 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +97.4% more
Milwaukee: 154.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Errors (L5) +61.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.9 vs Houston: 0.3
Runs per Game (Season) +41.6% more
Milwaukee: 5.1 vs Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season) +16.1%
Milwaukee: 74.3% vs Houston: 58.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 4.0 2
HOU Score 3.0 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.9 / 6.1 12.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.1 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 8.7 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 13.7 / 10.6 20.0 / 7.0
Walks 4.1 / 3.5 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
MIL
HOU
MIL
ML
50% 81-82
62% 101-61
47% 77-87
52% 84-78
ATS
56% 91-72
58% 94-68
55% 90-74
48% 78-84
TTL
45% 70-84-9
40% 62-92-8
45% 69-86-9
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 2 hours, 12 minutes ago
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
si 2 hours, 12 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 2 hours, 19 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 8 hours, 8 minutes ago
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
yahoo 8 hours, 18 minutes ago