MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
26-32 | Road
1
NEW YORK
METSNYM
24-33 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Phillips
#30 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Devin Williams
#38 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Phillips | None-None | 1.63 | -- | 5.0 | 2 |
| Devin Williams | None-None | 5.68 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.63 Ldr
ERA
5.68
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
61%
METS
39%
MARLINS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
16.3%
NYM By 1-2 runs
16.3%
NYM By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
5
MIAMI
New York
4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Miami
5
MIAMI
New York
3
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim
Marlins (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
NYM @ MIA
15 - 14
Sep 8, 2026
NYM @ MIA
7 - 5
Sep 7, 2026
NYM @ MIA
9 - 4
Aug 2, 2026
MIA @ NYM
2 - 0
Aug 1, 2026
MIA @ NYM
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.727
▲
OPS
.705
168
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+28.0% more
Miami: 9.6
vs
New York: 6.9
Total Bases (L5)
+20.1% more
Miami: 14.6
vs
New York: 11.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+2.3% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
New York: 4.3
OPS (Season)
+2.2%
Miami: 72.7%
vs
New York: 70.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
5.0
1
NYM Score
4.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.9 / 9.6
10.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.6
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 9.4
15.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
11.6 / 14.6
20.0 / 7.0
Walks
4.5 / 2.7
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
MIA
NYM
MIA
ML
50%
79-80
48%
78-84
48%
76-83
55%
88-72
ATS
58%
93-66
56%
91-71
49%
78-81
54%
86-74
TTL
55%
80-66-13
56%
88-69-5
51%
74-72-13
53%
82-73-5
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