SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
62-20 | Road
111
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
64-18 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
47%
THUNDER
53%
SPURS
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
SA By 1-7 points
27.2%
SA By 8-14 points
20.1%
OKC By 1-7 points
21.6%
OKC By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
114
SAN ANTONIO
Oklahoma City
111
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
San Antonio
124
SAN ANTONIO
Oklahoma City
115
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Win
47% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Thunder (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Spurs (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o212.0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
B
Sim
u212.0
Win
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 30, 2026
SA @ OKC
111 - 103
May 28, 2026
OKC @ SA
91 - 118
May 26, 2026
SA @ OKC
114 - 127
May 24, 2026
OKC @ SA
82 - 103
May 22, 2026
OKC @ SA
123 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+41.2% more
San Antonio: 6.6
vs
Oklahoma City: 3.9
Rebounding (L5)
+9.3% more
San Antonio: 48.0
vs
Oklahoma City: 43.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
San Antonio: 44.2%
vs
Oklahoma City: 42.2%
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.0%
Oklahoma City: 87.7%
vs
San Antonio: 83.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
114.0
111
OKC Score
111.0
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.7 / 33.2
34.0 / 43.0
Assists
24.8 / 26.8
23.0 / 21.0
Blocks
3.9 / 6.6
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.2 / 44.2
45.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
87.7 / 83.7
77.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
43.5 / 48.0
38.0 / 40.0
Steals
9.5 / 9.3
9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
14.6 / 14.8
14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
SA
OKC
SA
ML
70%
80-34
60%
111-73
48%
46-49
58%
61-44
ATS
73%
83-30-1
58%
107-76-1
48%
46-49
58%
61-44
TTL
67%
76-38
74%
134-47-3
100%
95-0
100%
105-0
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