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SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

62-20  |  Road

111
FINAL
Sat, May 30 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

64-18  |  Home

103
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
47%
📊
THUNDER
53%
SPURS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
SpursSA (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spurs Cover

38.2%

Thunder Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

SA By 1-7 points

27.2%

SA By 8-14 points

20.1%

OKC By 1-7 points

21.6%

OKC By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
114
SAN ANTONIO
111
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
124
SAN ANTONIO
115
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spurs Win
47% Win Prob
D
Sim Spurs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Spurs (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o212.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
B
Sim u212.0 Win
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 20, 2026 OKC @ SA 116 - 104
May 30, 2026 SA @ OKC 111 - 103
May 28, 2026 OKC @ SA 91 - 118
May 26, 2026 SA @ OKC 114 - 127
May 24, 2026 OKC @ SA 82 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +41.2% more
San Antonio: 6.6 vs Oklahoma City: 3.9
Rebounding (L5) +9.3% more
San Antonio: 48.0 vs Oklahoma City: 43.5
Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
San Antonio: 44.2% vs Oklahoma City: 42.2%
Turnovers (L5) +11.3% more
Oklahoma City: 11.9 vs San Antonio: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SA Score 114.0 111
OKC Score 111.0 103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.7 / 33.2 34.0 / 43.0
Assists 24.8 / 26.8 23.0 / 21.0
Blocks 3.9 / 6.6 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.2 / 44.2 45.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 87.7 / 83.7 77.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 43.5 / 48.0 38.0 / 40.0
Steals 9.5 / 9.3 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.6 / 14.8 14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: -2.5
OKC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: -2.5
OKC Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
OKC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -16.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
SA
OKC
SA
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
TTL
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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