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MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

33-20  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, May 29 • 8:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

26-32  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Trevor Megill
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor Megill

#29 | Relief Pitcher
@
Bryan King
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan King

#74 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Trevor Megill None-None 4.50 -- 1.0 2
Bryan King None-None 2.84 -- 1.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
4.50 ERA Ldr 2.84
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.2
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
50%
📊
ASTROS
50%
BREWERS --
ASTROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Houston)
BrewersMIL (-3.5) 0 AstrosHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

30.9%

Astros Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

MIL By 1-2 runs

13.6%

MIL By 3-4 runs

7.8%

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.6%

HOU By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3
MILWAUKEE
5
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
4
MILWAUKEE
7
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Astros Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Astros Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Astros (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Astros (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 31, 2026 MIL @ HOU 2 - 0
May 30, 2026 MIL @ HOU 2 - 9
May 29, 2026 MIL @ HOU 5 - 4
May 7, 2025 HOU @ MIL 9 - 1
May 6, 2025 HOU @ MIL 3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
Houston HOU
162 ▲
Games Played
2
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.743 ▲
OPS
.582
154 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +154.0% more
Houston: 2.3 vs Milwaukee: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +37.8% more
Houston: 15.1 vs Milwaukee: 10.9
Walks (L5) +12.1% more
Houston: 3.2 vs Milwaukee: 2.8
Errors (L5) +10.0% more
Houston: 0.4 vs Milwaukee: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 3.0 5
HOU Score 5.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.3 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.4 / 7.1 6.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 2.3 / 0.7 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 8.6 9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 15.1 / 10.9 11.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.2 / 2.8 6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
85%MONEY15%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
24%MONEY76%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
MIL
HOU
MIL
ML
50% 81-82
62% 101-61
47% 77-87
52% 84-78
ATS
56% 91-72
58% 94-68
55% 90-74
48% 78-84
TTL
45% 70-84-9
40% 62-92-8
45% 69-86-9
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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