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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

22-34  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, May 29 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

25-31  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Steven Cruz
STARTING PITCHER

Steven Cruz

#64 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tyler Alexander
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Alexander

#13 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Steven Cruz None-None 9.00 -- 1.0 1
Tyler Alexander None-None 2.19 -- 0.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
9.00 ERA Ldr 2.19
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
50%
📊
RANGERS
50%
ROYALS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Texas)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

22.7%

Rangers Cover

77.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

KC By 1-2 runs

10.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

5.4%

TEX By 1-2 runs

18.4%

TEX By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
KANSAS CITY
5
TEXAS
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Rangers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 11, 2026 TEX @ KC 4 - 2
Jun 10, 2026 TEX @ KC 6 - 4
Jun 9, 2026 TEX @ KC 3 - 5
May 31, 2026 KC @ TEX 3 - 6
May 30, 2026 KC @ TEX 6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.718 ▲
OPS
.713
170
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +82.0% more
Texas: 0.9 vs Kansas City: 0.1
Home Runs (L5) +72.0% more
Texas: 1.3 vs Kansas City: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5) +23.8% more
Texas: 7.5 vs Kansas City: 6.1
Home Runs (Season) +7.6% more
Texas: 183.0 vs Kansas City: 170.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 2.0 1
TEX Score 5.0 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.1 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 5.5 / 5.9 10.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.6 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 6.1 5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 10.3 / 9.7 22.0 / 7.0
Walks 2.8 / 3.4 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
KC
TEX
KC
ML
53% 86-76
55% 89-72
57% 91-70
56% 90-70
ATS
57% 92-70
57% 91-70
61% 98-63
58% 93-67
TTL
53% 78-70-14
58% 90-64-7
55% 81-66-14
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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