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LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

22-35  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, May 29 • 7:10 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

34-19  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Walbert Urena
STARTING PITCHER

Walbert Urena

#57 | Starting Pitcher
@
Bryan Baker
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Baker

#47 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Walbert Urena None-None 2.44 -- 6.0 5
Bryan Baker None-None 2.31 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
2.44 ERA Ldr 2.31
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
55%
📊
RAYS
45%
ANGELS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

40.1%

Rays Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

LAA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

10.6%

TB By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
LOS ANGELES
6
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rays Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Rays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 14, 2026 TB @ LAA 8 - 3
Jun 13, 2026 TB @ LAA 0 - 8
Jun 12, 2026 TB @ LAA 3 - 4
May 31, 2026 LAA @ TB 2 - 5
May 30, 2026 LAA @ TB 14 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.679
OPS
▲ .728
154
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +100.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.3 vs Los Angeles: 0.3
Hits (L5) +13.9% more
Tampa Bay: 9.5 vs Los Angeles: 8.3
Runs per Game (Season) +12.4% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
Home Runs (Season) +9.7% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 5.0 5
TB Score 6.0 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.3 / 0.3 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 9.5 / 8.3 10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.8 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.0 / 9.5 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 12.2 / 13.2 22.0 / 13.0
Walks 2.7 / 5.2 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
17%MONEY83%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
LAA
TB
LAA
ML
58% 95-68
59% 96-66
58% 95-68
55% 89-73
ATS
60% 97-66
60% 97-65
55% 90-73
51% 82-80
TTL
47% 73-81-9
53% 83-74-5
51% 78-75-10
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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