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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

38-19  |  Road

8
FINAL
Fri, May 29 • 6:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

29-26  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Dylan Lee
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Lee

#52 | Relief Pitcher
@
Caleb Ferguson
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Ferguson

#46 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Dylan Lee None-None 1.35 -- 1.0 3
Caleb Ferguson None-None 0.00 -- 1.2 3
None-None W-L None-None
1.35 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.2
3 K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
55%
📊
REDS
45%
BRAVES --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Cincinnati)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

30.9%

Reds Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

ATL By 1-2 runs

13.6%

ATL By 3-4 runs

7.8%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4
ATLANTA
6
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
ATLANTA
6
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 CIN @ ATL 7 - 6
Sep 23, 2026 CIN @ ATL 2 - 3
Sep 22, 2026 CIN @ ATL 4 - 0
May 31, 2026 ATL @ CIN 4 - 6
May 30, 2026 ATL @ CIN 5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
Cincinnati CIN
1
Games Played
▲ 162
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.233 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.324 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.757 ▲
OPS
.699
1
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +21200.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Errors (L5) +13.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.0 vs Atlanta: 0.8
Hits (L5) +11.9% more
Cincinnati: 9.1 vs Atlanta: 8.1
Home Runs (L5) +61.6% more
Atlanta: 1.5 vs Cincinnati: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 4.0 8
CIN Score 6.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.1 / 8.1 10.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.5 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 8.3 5.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 12.9 / 14.5 18.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.6 / 2.7 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
95%MONEY5%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
ATL
CIN
ATL
ML
55% 88-71
46% 77-90
49% 79-81
54% 90-78
ATS
54% 86-73
57% 96-71
50% 80-80
52% 87-81
TTL
53% 81-73-5
53% 83-73-11
54% 83-72-5
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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