SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
31-24 | Road
7
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
29-28 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Miller
#22 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Orlando Ribalta
#64 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Miller | None-None | 0.72 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
| Orlando Ribalta | None-None | 1.98 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.72 Ldr
ERA
1.98
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
40%
NATIONALS
60%
PADRES
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
16.3%
WSH By 1-2 runs
16.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Washington
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Win
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
A
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
WSH @ SD
2 - 9
Sep 8, 2026
WSH @ SD
4 - 5
Sep 7, 2026
WSH @ SD
2 - 3
May 31, 2026
SD @ WSH
2 - 4
May 30, 2026
SD @ WSH
4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Washington
WSH
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
5.07
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.423
.925
▲
OPS
.744
4
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
OPS (Season)
+18.1%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Washington: 74.4%
Runs per Game (Season)
+15.5% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Washington: 5.1
Slugging Pct (Season)
+14.0%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Washington: 42.3%
Batting Avg (Season)
+8.2%
San Diego: 32.8%
vs
Washington: 24.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
4.0
7
WSH Score
3.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.1
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.5 / 6.0
9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.8
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.1 / 5.5
5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
14.6 / 9.3
15.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.0
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
WSH
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
SD
WSH
SD
ML
57%
92-69
51%
85-83
54%
87-74
51%
85-82
ATS
58%
93-68
54%
91-77
57%
91-70
55%
92-75
TTL
50%
77-78-6
51%
82-80-6
42%
65-90-6
54%
86-74-6
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