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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

27-30  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, May 29 • 6:40 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

29-28  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Taylor Rogers
STARTING PITCHER

Taylor Rogers

#55 | Relief Pitcher
@
Gregory Soto
STARTING PITCHER

Gregory Soto

#31 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Taylor Rogers None-None 4.15 -- 0.1 1
Gregory Soto None-None 2.05 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.15 ERA Ldr 2.05
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
55%
📊
PIRATES
45%
TWINS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

40.1%

Pirates Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

MIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIN By 3-4 runs

16.3%

PIT By 1-2 runs

16.3%

PIT By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4
MINNESOTA
3
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
4
MINNESOTA
6
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Twins Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pirates (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim Pirates (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 31, 2026 MIN @ PIT 3 - 9
May 30, 2026 MIN @ PIT 9 - 10
May 29, 2026 MIN @ PIT 5 - 6
Jul 13, 2025 PIT @ MIN 2 - 1
Jul 12, 2025 PIT @ MIN 4 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .404
.720
OPS
▲ .734
187 ▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +96.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.5 vs Minnesota: 0.5
Home Runs (L5) +76.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.4 vs Minnesota: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +35.4% more
Pittsburgh: 13.9 vs Minnesota: 10.3
Walks (L5) +32.6% more
Pittsburgh: 4.9 vs Minnesota: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 4.0 5
PIT Score 3.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.5 / 0.5 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.0 / 6.1 8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.7 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.6 / 9.3 12.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 13.9 / 10.3 14.0 / 15.0
Walks 4.9 / 3.7 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
MIN
PIT
MIN
ML
52% 82-77
52% 84-78
52% 85-78
50% 80-81
ATS
54% 86-73
59% 95-67
50% 81-82
59% 95-66
TTL
47% 72-81-6
51% 78-75-9
50% 79-78-6
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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