Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Athletics NYY @ ATH

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

34-22  |  Road

8
FINAL
Fri, May 29 • 9:40 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

27-29  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Paul Blackburn
STARTING PITCHER

Paul Blackburn

#58 | Relief Pitcher
@
Luis Medina
STARTING PITCHER

Luis Medina

#46 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Paul Blackburn None-None 3.33 -- 2.0 1
Luis Medina None-None 3.13 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.33 ERA Ldr 3.13
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
60%
📊
ATHLETICS
40%
YANKEES --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Athletics)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

40.1%

Athletics Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

NYY By 1-2 runs

16.3%

NYY By 3-4 runs

10.6%

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATH By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
NEW YORK
5
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
6
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Loss
40% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Athletics (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 31, 2026 NYY @ ATH 13 - 8
May 30, 2026 NYY @ ATH 4 - 6
May 29, 2026 NYY @ ATH 8 - 2
Apr 9, 2026 ATH @ NYY 1 - 0
Apr 8, 2026 ATH @ NYY 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Athletics ATH
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
1.041 ▲
OPS
.719
2
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +9600.0% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs New York: 2.0
Errors (L5) +88.0% more
Athletics: 1.0 vs New York: 0.1
Walks (L5) +24.6% more
Athletics: 2.6 vs New York: 2.1
Strikeouts (L5) +11.3% more
Athletics: 8.6 vs New York: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 4.0 8
ATH Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.0 / 11.5 8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 2.1 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 7.7 6.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 20.1 11.0 / 24.0
Walks 2.6 / 2.1 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
92%MONEY8%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
NYY
ATH
NYY
ML
59% 95-67
47% 76-85
54% 87-74
52% 85-77
ATS
52% 84-78
59% 95-66
50% 81-80
53% 86-76
TTL
54% 84-73-5
53% 81-73-7
42% 66-90-5
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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