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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

37-19  |  Road

10
FINAL
Thu, May 28 • 4:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

23-31  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Dylan Dodd
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Dodd

#46 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jovani Moran
STARTING PITCHER

Jovani Moran

#47 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Dylan Dodd None-None 0.93 -- 1.0 2
Jovani Moran None-None 3.34 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
0.93 Ldr ERA 3.34
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
2 K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
56%
📊
RED SOX
44%
BRAVES --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 74%
Under 0 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Boston)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

40.1%

Red Sox Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

ATL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

ATL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
ATLANTA
5
BOSTON
Simulated Score
3
ATLANTA
7
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Loss
44% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Red Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 28, 2026 ATL @ BOS 10 - 2
May 27, 2026 ATL @ BOS 0 - 8
May 26, 2026 ATL @ BOS 7 - 6
May 17, 2026 BOS @ ATL 1 - 8
May 16, 2026 BOS @ ATL 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
Boston BOS
1
Games Played
▲ 2
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.233 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.324 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.757 ▲
OPS
.409
1
Home Runs
▲ 2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +72.0% more
Boston: 1.4 vs Atlanta: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +66.8% more
Boston: 17.1 vs Atlanta: 10.3
Hits (L5) +63.9% more
Boston: 11.0 vs Atlanta: 6.7
Strikeouts (L5) +37.2% more
Boston: 9.5 vs Atlanta: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 4.0 10
BOS Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 11.0 / 6.7 8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.7 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 6.9 10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 17.1 / 10.3 11.0 / 23.0
Walks 3.4 / 2.5 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
89%MONEY11%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
ATL
BOS
ATL
ML
50% 80-80
46% 77-90
47% 76-87
54% 90-78
ATS
58% 93-67
57% 96-71
48% 79-84
52% 87-81
TTL
46% 72-83-5
53% 83-73-11
47% 74-83-6
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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