TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
27-29 | Road
2
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
26-30 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Louis Varland
#77 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Anthony Nunez
#66 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Varland | None-None | 0.30 | -- | 1.1 | -- |
| Anthony Nunez | None-None | 5.06 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.30 Ldr
ERA
5.06
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
50%
ORIOLES
50%
BLUE JAYS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
16.3%
BAL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
BAL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim
Blue Jays (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
TOR @ BAL
2 - 4
Sep 21, 2026
TOR @ BAL
3 - 4
Sep 13, 2026
BAL @ TOR
1 - 8
Sep 12, 2026
BAL @ TOR
3 - 7
Sep 11, 2026
BAL @ TOR
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.692
OPS
▲
.711
152
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+27.0% more
Toronto: 0.5
vs
Baltimore: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+12.5% more
Toronto: 8.4
vs
Baltimore: 7.4
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.3%
Toronto: 24.7%
vs
Baltimore: 23.4%
Home Runs (L5)
+43.3% more
Baltimore: 1.9
vs
Toronto: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
5.0
2
BAL Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
11.2 / 7.9
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 1.3
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 8.4
5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
18.9 / 13.3
12.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.7 / 2.7
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
TOR
BAL
TOR
ML
53%
83-73
46%
74-87
57%
90-69
50%
80-80
ATS
61%
95-60-1
56%
90-71
57%
90-68-1
49%
79-81
TTL
54%
81-70-5
51%
80-76-5
51%
78-75-6
45%
70-85-5
Contextual Game News
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