OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
64-18 | Road
91
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
62-20 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
60%
SPURS
40%
THUNDER
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
85%
Under 0
15%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
OKC By 1-7 points
16.9%
OKC By 8-14 points
6.8%
SA By 1-7 points
26.8%
SA By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
111
OKLAHOMA CITY
San Antonio
117
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
105
OKLAHOMA CITY
San Antonio
118
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Win
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spurs (-3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Spurs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o219.5
Loss
Proj Total: 228.0
A
Sim
u219.5
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 20, 2026
OKC @ SA
116 - 104
May 30, 2026
SA @ OKC
111 - 103
May 28, 2026
OKC @ SA
91 - 118
May 26, 2026
SA @ OKC
114 - 127
May 24, 2026
OKC @ SA
82 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+47.8% more
San Antonio: 6.4
vs
Oklahoma City: 4.3
Turnovers (L5)
+10.2% more
Oklahoma City: 11.9
vs
San Antonio: 10.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.3%
Oklahoma City: 36.6%
vs
San Antonio: 31.3%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.1%
Oklahoma City: 85.6%
vs
San Antonio: 83.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
111.0
91
SA Score
117.0
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.3 / 36.6
37.0 / 25.0
Assists
25.1 / 26.1
30.0 / 22.0
Blocks
6.4 / 4.3
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
42.9 / 44.8
47.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
83.5 / 85.6
84.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
45.9 / 44.3
52.0 / 42.0
Steals
10.5 / 9.8
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
15.6 / 15.3
13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: -4.3
SA
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: -3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: -4.3
SA
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: -3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -15.3
SA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
OKC
SA
OKC
ML
60%
3-2
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
ATS
40%
2-3
20%
1-4
20%
1-4
40%
2-3
TTL
80%
4-1
80%
4-1
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
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