TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
34-18 | Road
2
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
25-30 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Steven Matz
#32 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Anthony Nunez
#66 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Matz | None-None | 4.67 | -- | 3.0 | 2 |
| Anthony Nunez | None-None | 4.91 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.67 Ldr
ERA
4.91
--
WHIP
--
3.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
57%
ORIOLES
43%
RAYS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
TB By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
10.6%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Win
43% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 1
Aug 22, 2026
TB @ BAL
2 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 5
Aug 17, 2026
BAL @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026
BAL @ TB
10 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.728
▲
OPS
.711
169
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+73.0% more
Baltimore: 1.4
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.7
Home Runs (Season)
+17.8% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 169.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+13.0% more
Baltimore: 9.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 8.0
Errors (L5)
+79.1% more
Tampa Bay: 2.0
vs
Baltimore: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
4.0
2
BAL Score
5.0
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 2.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 9.3
16.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.7
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 8.0
4.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 13.3
29.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.0 / 3.1
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
TB
BAL
TB
ML
53%
83-73
58%
95-68
57%
90-69
58%
95-68
ATS
61%
95-60-1
60%
97-66
57%
90-68-1
55%
90-73
TTL
54%
81-70-5
47%
73-81-9
51%
78-75-6
51%
78-75-10
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