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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

29-25  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, May 27 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

22-33  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Caleb Ferguson
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Ferguson

#46 | Relief Pitcher
@
Devin Williams
STARTING PITCHER

Devin Williams

#38 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Caleb Ferguson None-None 0.00 -- 1.1 1
Devin Williams None-None 6.00 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 6.00
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
71%
📊
METS
29%
REDS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

40.1%

Mets Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

16.3%

NYM By 1-2 runs

16.3%

NYM By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5
CINCINNATI
4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
6
CINCINNATI
4
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Loss
71% Win Prob
B
Sim Reds Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Reds (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 NYM @ CIN 9 - 1
Jun 16, 2026 NYM @ CIN 3 - 5
Jun 15, 2026 NYM @ CIN 0 - 12
May 27, 2026 CIN @ NYM 2 - 4
May 26, 2026 CIN @ NYM 7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .395
.699
OPS
▲ .705
213 ▲
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +37.9% more
Cincinnati: 14.8 vs New York: 9.2
Hits (L5) +37.6% more
Cincinnati: 9.7 vs New York: 6.0
Home Runs (Season) +4.2% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs New York: 204.0
Walks (L5) +41.6% more
New York: 4.2 vs Cincinnati: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 5.0 2
NYM Score 4.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 6.0 / 9.7 7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.8 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.4 / 9.5 8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 9.2 / 14.8 13.0 / 9.0
Walks 4.2 / 2.9 9.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN Advantage
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
CIN
NYM
CIN
ML
50% 79-80
55% 88-71
48% 76-83
49% 79-81
ATS
58% 93-66
54% 86-73
49% 78-81
50% 80-80
TTL
55% 80-66-13
53% 81-73-5
51% 74-72-13
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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