ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
29-24 | Road
1
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
32-20 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Pedro Pages
#43 | Catcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Megill
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pages | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Trevor Megill | None-None | 4.74 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
4.74
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
29%
BREWERS
71%
CARDINALS
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
37%
Under 0
63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
18.4%
STL By 3-4 runs
19.6%
MIL By 1-2 runs
10.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
5.4%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
6
ST. LOUIS
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Loss
29% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Brewers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
STL @ MIL
4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026
STL @ MIL
2 - 3
Sep 25, 2026
STL @ MIL
4 - 8
Jul 9, 2026
MIL @ STL
8 - 4
Jul 8, 2026
MIL @ STL
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.691
OPS
▲
.743
167
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+10.9% more
St. Louis: 10.0
vs
Milwaukee: 8.9
Walks (L5)
+8.8% more
St. Louis: 3.5
vs
Milwaukee: 3.2
Home Runs (Season)
+7.8% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
Milwaukee: 154.0
Total Bases (L5)
+57.0% more
Milwaukee: 14.4
vs
St. Louis: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
6.0
1
MIL Score
3.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
9.2 / 6.8
3.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 10.0
8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.4 / 9.2
4.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.5
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
STL
MIL
STL
ML
62%
101-61
53%
85-74
52%
84-78
52%
84-77
ATS
58%
94-68
56%
89-70
48%
78-84
53%
85-76
TTL
40%
62-92-8
46%
68-81-10
50%
77-77-8
50%
76-75-10
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