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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

30-24  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, May 27 • 3:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

22-33  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Kevin Ginkel
STARTING PITCHER

Kevin Ginkel

#37 | Relief Pitcher
@
Trevor McDonald
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor McDonald

#72 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kevin Ginkel None-None 3.18 -- 1.0 --
Trevor McDonald None-None 4.34 -- 6.1 6
None-None W-L None-None
3.18 Ldr ERA 4.34
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.1
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
83%
📊
GIANTS
17%
DIAMONDBACKS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 90%
Under 0 10%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Francisco)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

40.1%

Giants Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

ARI By 1-2 runs

16.3%

ARI By 3-4 runs

10.6%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
ARIZONA
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
4
ARIZONA
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Loss
17% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 ARI @ SF 7 - 1
Aug 28, 2026 ARI @ SF 10 - 6
Aug 27, 2026 ARI @ SF 1 - 6
Jul 1, 2026 SF @ ARI 6 - 4
Jun 30, 2026 SF @ ARI 2 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720 ▲
OPS
.706
166
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +89.5% more
San Francisco: 4.9 vs Arizona: 2.6
Errors (L5) +80.0% more
San Francisco: 0.8 vs Arizona: 0.0
Home Runs (L5) +63.3% more
San Francisco: 1.8 vs Arizona: 1.1
Strikeouts (L5) +20.9% more
San Francisco: 8.2 vs Arizona: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 4.0 3
SF Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.0 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.7 / 9.7 6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 6.8 8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 17.6 / 16.1 8.0 / 6.0
Walks 4.9 / 2.6 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
ARI
SF
ARI
ML
49% 79-81
54% 87-74
53% 85-75
54% 86-74
ATS
62% 100-60
57% 91-70
52% 83-77
56% 89-71
TTL
55% 82-68-10
52% 80-73-8
46% 68-81-11
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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