MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
26-30 | Road
1
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
26-29 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Pete Fairbanks
#29 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Rogers
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Fairbanks | None-None | 7.07 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Tyler Rogers | None-None | 2.52 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
7.07
ERA
Ldr 2.52
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
46%
BLUE JAYS
54%
MARLINS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
MIA By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4
MIAMI
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 27, 2026
MIA @ TOR
1 - 2
May 26, 2026
MIA @ TOR
1 - 8
May 25, 2026
MIA @ TOR
8 - 2
Aug 24, 2025
TOR @ MIA
3 - 5
Aug 23, 2025
TOR @ MIA
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.727
▲
OPS
.692
168
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+97.0% more
Toronto: 1.5
vs
Miami: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+50.0% more
Toronto: 3.1
vs
Miami: 2.0
Errors (L5)
+49.0% more
Toronto: 0.8
vs
Miami: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+40.2% more
Toronto: 15.5
vs
Miami: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.0
1
TOR Score
5.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.4 / 7.1
5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 7.8
8.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
15.5 / 11.0
9.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.0
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
MIA
TOR
MIA
ML
46%
74-87
48%
78-84
50%
80-80
55%
88-72
ATS
56%
90-71
56%
91-71
49%
79-81
54%
86-74
TTL
51%
80-76-5
56%
88-69-5
45%
70-85-5
53%
82-73-5
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
Rays Sweep Yankees as Fan Interference Call Erases Volpe's Would…
Yankees Denied by Replay as Fan Interference Echoes Jeffrey Maie…
Brewers Aim to Clinch NLDS Against Padres in Game 4 Showdown