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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

29-27  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, May 27 • 1:10 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

32-25  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Clayton Beeter
STARTING PITCHER

Clayton Beeter

#39 | Relief Pitcher
@
Cade Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Smith

#36 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Clayton Beeter None-None 2.70 -- 1.0 --
Cade Smith None-None 2.70 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
2.70 ERA 2.70
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
54%
📊
GUARDIANS
46%
NATIONALS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Washington)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

77.3%

Guardians Cover

22.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-2 runs

18.4%

WSH By 3-4 runs

19.6%

CLE By 1-2 runs

10.6%

CLE By 3-4 runs

5.4%

AI Model Projected Score
6
WASHINGTON
3
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
7
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nationals Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nationals (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Sim Guardians (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 27, 2026 WSH @ CLE 2 - 3
May 26, 2026 WSH @ CLE 6 - 3
May 25, 2026 WSH @ CLE 10 - 2
May 7, 2025 CLE @ WSH 8 - 6
May 6, 2025 CLE @ WSH 9 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.744 ▲
OPS
.696
210 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +72.9% more
Washington: 2.1 vs Cleveland: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +41.4% more
Washington: 18.4 vs Cleveland: 10.8
Hits (L5) +30.4% more
Washington: 10.3 vs Cleveland: 7.2
Home Runs (Season) +22.9% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Cleveland: 162.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 6.0 2
CLE Score 3.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.2 / 10.3 10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 2.1 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 9.7 8.0 / 2.0
Total Bases 10.8 / 18.4 13.0 / 7.0
Walks 3.6 / 2.7 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
87-79-0 (52.4%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
WSH
CLE
WSH
ML
54% 87-75
57% 92-69
49% 80-83
54% 87-74
ATS
57% 93-69
58% 93-68
58% 95-68
57% 91-70
TTL
56% 89-71-2
50% 77-78-6
44% 70-90-2
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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