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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

28-27  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, May 27 • 4:10 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

31-23  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Jose Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Alvarado

#46 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jeremiah Estrada
STARTING PITCHER

Jeremiah Estrada

#56 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jose Alvarado None-None 5.79 -- 1.0 2
Jeremiah Estrada None-None 3.00 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
5.79 ERA Ldr 3.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
63%
📊
PADRES
38%
PHILLIES --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Philadelphia)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

77.3%

Padres Cover

22.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-2 runs

18.4%

PHI By 3-4 runs

19.6%

SD By 1-2 runs

10.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

5.4%

AI Model Projected Score
6
PHILADELPHIA
3
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Padres Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Padres (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 4, 2026 SD @ PHI 4 - 6
Jun 3, 2026 SD @ PHI 2 - 3
Jun 2, 2026 SD @ PHI 2 - 3
May 27, 2026 PHI @ SD 3 - 0
May 26, 2026 PHI @ SD 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
San Diego SD
2
Games Played
2
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.438
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.724
OPS
▲ .925
3
Home Runs
▲ 4
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +38.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.5 vs San Diego: 0.1
Home Runs (L5) +30.7% more
Philadelphia: 1.7 vs San Diego: 1.2
Strikeouts (L5) +27.7% more
Philadelphia: 9.3 vs San Diego: 6.7
Total Bases (L5) +21.5% more
Philadelphia: 12.1 vs San Diego: 9.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 6.0 3
SD Score 3.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.6 / 6.3 7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.7 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.7 / 9.3 3.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 9.5 / 12.1 9.0 / 9.0
Walks 4.4 / 2.1 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
PHI
SD
PHI
ML
51% 85-83
59% 97-67
51% 85-82
49% 80-84
ATS
54% 91-77
65% 107-57
55% 92-75
51% 83-81
TTL
51% 82-80-6
57% 88-67-9
54% 86-74-6
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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