Home / MLB Projections MLB / Reds @ Mets CIN @ NYM

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

28-25  |  Road

7
FINAL
Tue, May 26 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

22-32  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Brock Burke
STARTING PITCHER

Brock Burke

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sean Manaea
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Manaea

#59 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brock Burke None-None 3.60 -- 0.1 --
Sean Manaea None-None 5.56 -- 3.0 6
None-None W-L None-None
3.60 Ldr ERA 5.56
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 3.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
64%
📊
METS
36%
REDS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Cincinnati)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

69.1%

Mets Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

18.4%

NYM By 1-2 runs

13.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6
CINCINNATI
4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
CINCINNATI
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Reds Win
64% Win Prob
C
Sim Mets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Mets (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 NYM @ CIN 9 - 1
Jun 16, 2026 NYM @ CIN 3 - 5
Jun 15, 2026 NYM @ CIN 0 - 12
May 27, 2026 CIN @ NYM 2 - 4
May 26, 2026 CIN @ NYM 7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .395
.699
OPS
▲ .705
213 ▲
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +45.7% more
Cincinnati: 1.3 vs New York: 0.7
Errors (L5) +45.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.7 vs New York: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +29.6% more
Cincinnati: 13.2 vs New York: 9.3
Home Runs (Season) +4.2% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs New York: 204.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 6.0 7
NYM Score 4.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.5 / 7.0 5.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 9.3 12.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 9.3 / 13.2 9.0 / 18.0
Walks 3.7 / 3.4 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
89%MONEY11%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN Advantage
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
CIN
NYM
CIN
ML
50% 79-80
55% 88-71
48% 76-83
49% 79-81
ATS
58% 93-66
54% 86-73
49% 78-81
50% 80-80
TTL
55% 80-66-13
53% 81-73-5
51% 74-72-13
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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