Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Blue Jays MIA @ TOR

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

26-29  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, May 26 • 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

25-29  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Cade Gibson
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Gibson

#58 | Relief Pitcher
@
Spencer Miles
STARTING PITCHER

Spencer Miles

#62 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cade Gibson None-None 7.71 -- 2.1 2
Spencer Miles None-None 2.16 -- 4.1 3
None-None W-L None-None
7.71 ERA Ldr 2.16
-- WHIP --
2.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 4.1
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
55%
📊
BLUE JAYS
45%
MARLINS --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

40.1%

Blue Jays Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

MIA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIA By 3-4 runs

16.3%

TOR By 1-2 runs

16.3%

TOR By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
6
MIAMI
5
TORONTO
Simulated Score
5
MIAMI
3
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Marlins Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Marlins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim Marlins (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 27, 2026 MIA @ TOR 1 - 2
May 26, 2026 MIA @ TOR 1 - 8
May 25, 2026 MIA @ TOR 8 - 2
Aug 24, 2025 TOR @ MIA 3 - 5
Aug 23, 2025 TOR @ MIA 7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Toronto TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.41 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.727 ▲
OPS
.692
168 ▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +27.0% more
Miami: 0.5 vs Toronto: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +13.1% more
Miami: 14.0 vs Toronto: 12.2
Home Runs (Season) +9.5% more
Miami: 168.0 vs Toronto: 152.0
Runs per Game (Season) +9.3% more
Miami: 4.4 vs Toronto: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 6.0 1
TOR Score 5.0 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.5 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 8.1 12.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.8 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.4 / 8.7 5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.2 / 14.0 22.0 / 5.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.6 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
MIA
TOR
MIA
ML
46% 74-87
48% 78-84
50% 80-80
55% 88-72
ATS
56% 90-71
56% 91-71
49% 79-81
54% 86-74
TTL
51% 80-76-5
56% 88-69-5
45% 70-85-5
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 18 hours, 37 minutes ago
Rays Sweep Yankees as Fan Interference Call Erases Volpe's Would…
kesq 18 hours, 58 minutes ago
Yankees Denied by Replay as Fan Interference Echoes Jeffrey Maie…
headtopics 19 hours, 3 minutes ago
Brewers Aim to Clinch NLDS Against Padres in Game 4 Showdown
yahoo 1 day, 1 hour ago
Orioles' Centerfield Crisis: Why Byron Buxton Could Be the Answer
si 1 day, 6 hours ago