NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
32-22 | Road
15
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
22-32 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Yarbrough
#33 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Steven Cruz
#64 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Yarbrough | None-None | 3.66 | -- | 3.0 | -- |
| Steven Cruz | None-None | 8.25 | -- | 1.2 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.66 Ldr
ERA
8.25
--
WHIP
--
3.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
64%
ROYALS
36%
YANKEES
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
30%
Under 0
70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
NYY By 1-2 runs
16.3%
NYY By 3-4 runs
19.6%
KC By 1-2 runs
7.8%
KC By 3-4 runs
3.5%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
6
NEW YORK
Kansas City
2
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
New York
6
NEW YORK
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Win
64% Win Prob
C
Sim
Yankees
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim
Yankees (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 27, 2026
NYY @ KC
7 - 0
May 26, 2026
NYY @ KC
15 - 1
May 25, 2026
NYY @ KC
4 - 3
Apr 19, 2026
KC @ NYY
0 - 7
Apr 18, 2026
KC @ NYY
4 - 13
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Kansas City
KC
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
1.041
▲
OPS
.718
2
Home Runs
▲
170
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+52.7% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Kansas City: 4.3
Walks (L5)
+48.3% more
New York: 4.2
vs
Kansas City: 2.2
OPS (Season)
+32.3%
New York: 1.0%
vs
Kansas City: 71.8%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+19.2%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Kansas City: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
6.0
15
KC Score
2.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 7.9
6.0 / 24.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.9
1.0 / 6.0
Strikeouts
5.9 / 6.9
5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.9 / 12.5
11.0 / 46.0
Walks
2.2 / 4.2
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
NYY
KC
NYY
ML
55%
89-72
47%
76-85
56%
90-70
52%
85-77
ATS
57%
91-70
59%
95-66
58%
93-67
53%
86-76
TTL
58%
90-64-7
53%
81-73-7
54%
83-70-7
53%
82-72-7
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