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HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

24-31  |  Road

7
FINAL
Tue, May 26 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

24-29  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
AJ Blubaugh
STARTING PITCHER

AJ Blubaugh

#69 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jacob Latz
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Latz

#67 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
AJ Blubaugh None-None 4.81 -- 2.0 --
Jacob Latz None-None 2.16 -- 1.1 2
None-None W-L None-None
4.81 ERA Ldr 2.16
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.1
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
71%
📊
RANGERS
29%
ASTROS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 44%
Under 0 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Texas)
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

22.7%

Rangers Cover

77.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

HOU By 1-2 runs

10.6%

HOU By 3-4 runs

5.4%

TEX By 1-2 runs

18.4%

TEX By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
HOUSTON
6
TEXAS
Simulated Score
3
HOUSTON
7
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Win
29% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Rangers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 TEX @ HOU 3 - 7
Aug 1, 2026 TEX @ HOU 4 - 5
Jul 31, 2026 TEX @ HOU 2 - 11
Jul 12, 2026 HOU @ TEX 5 - 6
Jul 11, 2026 HOU @ TEX 9 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Texas TEX
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.15
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .242
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .396
.582
OPS
▲ .713
4
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4475.0% more
Texas: 183.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Errors (L5) +89.0% more
Texas: 1.1 vs Houston: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5) +42.4% more
Texas: 7.9 vs Houston: 5.5
Runs per Game (Season) +38.3% more
Texas: 4.2 vs Houston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 3.0 7
TEX Score 6.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.2 / 8.2 9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.9 2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 5.5 7.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 9.0 / 14.5 18.0 / 21.0
Walks 2.8 / 4.8 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
HOU
TEX
HOU
ML
53% 86-76
50% 81-82
57% 91-70
47% 77-87
ATS
57% 92-70
56% 91-72
61% 98-63
55% 90-74
TTL
53% 78-70-14
45% 70-84-9
55% 81-66-14
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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