CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
29-25 | Road
1
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
28-26 | Home
12
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Rolison
#33 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Rolison | None-None | 3.24 | -- | 1.2 | 1 |
| Braxton Ashcraft | None-None | 2.75 | -- | 6.1 | 5 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.24
ERA
Ldr 2.75
--
WHIP
--
1.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
32%
PIRATES
68%
CUBS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
CHC By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CHC By 3-4 runs
19.6%
PIT By 1-2 runs
7.8%
PIT By 3-4 runs
3.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Pittsburgh
2
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cubs
Loss
32% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
PIT @ CHC
4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026
PIT @ CHC
3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026
PIT @ CHC
2 - 12
Jul 26, 2026
CHC @ PIT
7 - 8
Jul 25, 2026
CHC @ PIT
11 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.374
OPS
▲
.734
0
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+46.0% more
Chicago: 0.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.5
Home Runs (Season)
+18600.0% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+423.0% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Home Runs (L5)
+46.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.2
vs
Chicago: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
6.0
1
PIT Score
2.0
12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.9
3.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.5 / 5.5
15.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.8
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 8.0
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.1 / 8.4
24.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.5 / 2.8
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
CHC
PIT
CHC
ML
52%
82-77
58%
93-68
52%
85-78
51%
82-79
ATS
54%
86-73
61%
97-63-1
50%
81-82
47%
75-85-1
TTL
47%
72-81-6
52%
81-74-6
50%
79-78-6
46%
72-83-6
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