Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Brewers STL @ MIL

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

29-23  |  Road

0
FINAL
Tue, May 26 • 7:40 PM ET
American Family Field
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

31-20  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Justin Bruihl
STARTING PITCHER

Justin Bruihl

#47 | Relief Pitcher
@
Trevor Megill
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor Megill

#29 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Justin Bruihl None-None 5.11 -- 2.0 2
Trevor Megill None-None 5.00 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
5.11 ERA Ldr 5.00
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
36%
📊
BREWERS
64%
CARDINALS --
BREWERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 42%
Under 0 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Milwaukee)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 BrewersMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

40.1%

Brewers Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

STL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

STL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
ST. LOUIS
5
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
4
ST. LOUIS
6
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Brewers Win
64% Win Prob
C
Sim Brewers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Brewers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Brewers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 STL @ MIL 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 STL @ MIL 2 - 3
Sep 25, 2026 STL @ MIL 4 - 8
Jul 9, 2026 MIL @ STL 8 - 4
Jul 8, 2026 MIL @ STL 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Milwaukee MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 5.14
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .341
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.691
OPS
▲ .743
167 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +31.4% more
Milwaukee: 8.7 vs St. Louis: 6.7
Walks (L5) +31.2% more
Milwaukee: 4.3 vs St. Louis: 3.3
Strikeouts (L5) +20.7% more
Milwaukee: 10.9 vs St. Louis: 9.0
Total Bases (L5) +17.9% more
Milwaukee: 12.1 vs St. Louis: 10.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 4.0 0
MIL Score 5.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.7 / 6.7 10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.9 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.9 / 9.0 5.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 12.1 / 10.3 19.0 / 7.0
Walks 4.3 / 3.3 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
19%MONEY81%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
STL
MIL
STL
ML
62% 101-61
53% 85-74
52% 84-78
52% 84-77
ATS
58% 94-68
56% 89-70
48% 78-84
53% 85-76
TTL
40% 62-92-8
46% 68-81-10
50% 77-77-8
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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