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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

29-24  |  Road

7
FINAL
Tue, May 26 • 9:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

22-32  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Juan Morillo
STARTING PITCHER

Juan Morillo

#62 | Relief Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Keaton Winn

#67 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Juan Morillo None-None 2.91 -- 1.0 1
Keaton Winn None-None 1.85 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.91 ERA Ldr 1.85
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
79%
📊
GIANTS
21%
DIAMONDBACKS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Arizona)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

69.1%

Giants Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ARI By 3-4 runs

18.4%

SF By 1-2 runs

13.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
7
ARIZONA
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
ARIZONA
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks Win
79% Win Prob
B
Sim Giants Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim Giants (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 12.0
B
Sim u8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 ARI @ SF 7 - 1
Aug 28, 2026 ARI @ SF 10 - 6
Aug 27, 2026 ARI @ SF 1 - 6
Jul 1, 2026 SF @ ARI 6 - 4
Jun 30, 2026 SF @ ARI 2 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720 ▲
OPS
.706
166
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +18.3% more
Arizona: 10.5 vs San Francisco: 8.6
Runs per Game (Season) +9.4% more
Arizona: 4.6 vs San Francisco: 4.1
OPS (Season) +1.4%
Arizona: 72.0% vs San Francisco: 70.6%
On-Base Pct (Season) +1.2%
Arizona: 31.8% vs San Francisco: 30.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 7.0 7
SF Score 5.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.0 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.6 / 10.5 9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.6 3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 5.2 7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 15.4 / 16.2 22.0 / 16.0
Walks 4.3 / 2.3 6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
ARI
SF
ARI
ML
49% 79-81
54% 87-74
53% 85-75
54% 86-74
ATS
62% 100-60
57% 91-70
52% 83-77
56% 89-71
TTL
55% 82-68-10
52% 80-73-8
46% 68-81-11
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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