PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
27-27 | Road
4
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
31-22 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jhoan Duran
#59 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Adrian Morejon
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhoan Duran | None-None | 1.62 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Adrian Morejon | None-None | 4.28 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.62 Ldr
ERA
4.28
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
55%
PADRES
45%
PHILLIES
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
PHI By 1-2 runs
13.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
7.8%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 4, 2026
SD @ PHI
4 - 6
Jun 3, 2026
SD @ PHI
2 - 3
Jun 2, 2026
SD @ PHI
2 - 3
May 27, 2026
PHI @ SD
3 - 0
May 26, 2026
PHI @ SD
4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
San Diego
SD
2
Games Played
2
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.438
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.724
OPS
▲
.925
3
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+135.8% more
San Diego: 5.1
vs
Philadelphia: 2.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+71.4% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
OPS (Season)
+20.1%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Philadelphia: 72.4%
Hits (L5)
+18.0% more
San Diego: 5.8
vs
Philadelphia: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.0
4
SD Score
6.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.8 / 5.0
5.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.0
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 8.4
4.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
8.8 / 9.2
11.0 / 18.0
Walks
5.1 / 2.2
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
PHI
SD
PHI
ML
51%
85-83
59%
97-67
51%
85-82
49%
80-84
ATS
54%
91-77
65%
107-57
55%
92-75
51%
83-81
TTL
51%
82-80-6
57%
88-67-9
54%
86-74-6
51%
78-76-9
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