WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
28-27 | Road
6
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
32-24 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Will Dion
#76 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Colin Holderman
#35 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dion | None-None | 6.00 | -- | 3.0 | 3 |
| Colin Holderman | None-None | 1.40 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.00
ERA
Ldr 1.40
--
WHIP
--
3.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
45%
GUARDIANS
55%
NATIONALS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
WSH By 1-2 runs
16.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
10.6%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Washington
7
WASHINGTON
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Guardians (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Nationals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 27, 2026
WSH @ CLE
2 - 3
May 26, 2026
WSH @ CLE
6 - 3
May 25, 2026
WSH @ CLE
10 - 2
May 7, 2025
CLE @ WSH
8 - 6
May 6, 2025
CLE @ WSH
9 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.744
▲
OPS
.696
210
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.9% more
Cleveland: 10.5
vs
Washington: 8.5
Walks (L5)
+16.2% more
Cleveland: 2.9
vs
Washington: 2.5
Home Runs (L5)
+67.8% more
Washington: 2.7
vs
Cleveland: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+44.4% more
Washington: 20.1
vs
Cleveland: 11.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.0
6
CLE Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.8 / 10.0
8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 2.7
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.5 / 8.5
6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
11.2 / 20.1
10.0 / 15.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.5
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
WSH
CLE
WSH
ML
54%
87-74
57%
92-69
49%
80-82
54%
87-74
ATS
58%
93-68
58%
93-68
59%
95-67
57%
91-70
TTL
55%
88-71-2
50%
77-78-6
43%
69-90-2
42%
65-90-6
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