SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
62-20 | Road
114
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
64-18 | Home
127
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
43%
THUNDER
57%
SPURS
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
80%
Under 0
20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
SA By 1-7 points
27.2%
SA By 8-14 points
20.1%
OKC By 1-7 points
21.6%
OKC By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
121
SAN ANTONIO
Oklahoma City
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
San Antonio
125
SAN ANTONIO
Oklahoma City
109
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Loss
43% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Thunder (+4)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Spurs (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o217.0
Win
Proj Total: 239.0
A
Sim
u217.0
Win
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 30, 2026
SA @ OKC
111 - 103
May 28, 2026
OKC @ SA
91 - 118
May 26, 2026
SA @ OKC
114 - 127
May 24, 2026
OKC @ SA
82 - 103
May 22, 2026
OKC @ SA
123 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+50.8% more
San Antonio: 8.1
vs
Oklahoma City: 4.0
Rebounding (L5)
+12.5% more
San Antonio: 48.4
vs
Oklahoma City: 42.4
Turnovers (L5)
+9.1% more
San Antonio: 16.0
vs
Oklahoma City: 14.5
Steals (L5)
+16.9% more
Oklahoma City: 10.2
vs
San Antonio: 8.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
121.0
114
OKC Score
118.0
127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.9 / 32.4
44.0 / 29.0
Assists
26.2 / 25.2
26.0 / 25.0
Blocks
4.0 / 8.1
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.2 / 44.3
48.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
84.9 / 81.3
87.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
42.4 / 48.4
48.0 / 41.0
Steals
10.2 / 8.7
9.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
14.5 / 16.0
17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
SA
OKC
SA
ML
70%
80-34
60%
111-73
48%
46-49
58%
61-44
ATS
73%
83-30-1
58%
107-76-1
48%
46-49
58%
61-44
TTL
67%
76-38
74%
134-47-3
100%
95-0
100%
105-0
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