CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
27-25 | Road
7
NEW YORK
METSNYM
22-31 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sam Moll
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jonathan Pintaro
#91 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Moll | None-None | 2.74 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Jonathan Pintaro | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 2.2 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.74
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.2
3
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
55%
METS
45%
REDS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
18.4%
NYM By 1-2 runs
13.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
New York
3
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Reds (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim
Mets (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 17, 2026
NYM @ CIN
9 - 1
Jun 16, 2026
NYM @ CIN
3 - 5
Jun 15, 2026
NYM @ CIN
0 - 12
May 27, 2026
CIN @ NYM
2 - 4
May 26, 2026
CIN @ NYM
7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.395
.699
OPS
▲
.705
213
▲
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+68.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.0
vs
New York: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+41.8% more
Cincinnati: 12.8
vs
New York: 7.4
Home Runs (L5)
+37.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.9
vs
New York: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+29.3% more
Cincinnati: 5.1
vs
New York: 3.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
5.0
7
NYM Score
3.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.3 / 7.5
9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 0.9
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 7.9
15.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
7.4 / 12.8
13.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.6 / 5.1
4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
Advantage
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
CIN
NYM
CIN
ML
50%
79-80
55%
88-71
48%
76-83
49%
79-81
ATS
58%
93-66
54%
86-73
49%
78-81
50%
80-80
TTL
55%
80-66-13
53%
81-73-5
51%
74-72-13
54%
83-72-5
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