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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

27-27  |  Road

10
FINAL
Mon, May 25 • 6:10 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

32-23  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Zack Littell
STARTING PITCHER

Zack Littell

#18 | SP
@
Logan Allen
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Allen

#26 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Zack Littell None-None 5.23 -- 7.0 7
Logan Allen None-None 0.00 -- 4.0 7
None-None W-L None-None
5.23 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
7.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 4.0
7 K (Strikeouts) 7
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
40%
📊
GUARDIANS
60%
NATIONALS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Cleveland)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

30.9%

Guardians Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

WSH By 1-2 runs

13.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

7.8%

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CLE By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
6
WASHINGTON
3
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Guardians Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Guardians (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 27, 2026 WSH @ CLE 2 - 3
May 26, 2026 WSH @ CLE 6 - 3
May 25, 2026 WSH @ CLE 10 - 2
May 7, 2025 CLE @ WSH 8 - 6
May 6, 2025 CLE @ WSH 9 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.744 ▲
OPS
.696
210 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +71.9% more
Cleveland: 3.8 vs Washington: 2.2
Strikeouts (L5) +11.4% more
Cleveland: 10.3 vs Washington: 9.2
Errors (L5) +65.0% more
Washington: 0.9 vs Cleveland: 0.3
Home Runs (L5) +23.8% more
Washington: 1.1 vs Cleveland: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.0 10
CLE Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.7 / 7.5 7.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.1 1.0 / 6.0
Strikeouts 10.3 / 9.2 11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.8 / 12.7 12.0 / 35.0
Walks 3.8 / 2.2 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
WSH
CLE
WSH
ML
54% 87-74
57% 92-69
49% 80-82
54% 87-74
ATS
58% 93-68
58% 93-68
59% 95-67
57% 91-70
TTL
55% 88-71-2
50% 77-78-6
43% 69-90-2
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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