Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Royals NYY @ KC

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

31-22  |  Road

4
FINAL
Mon, May 25 • 3:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

22-31  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
David Bednar
STARTING PITCHER

David Bednar

#53 | Relief Pitcher
@
Daniel Lynch IV
STARTING PITCHER

Daniel Lynch IV

#41 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
David Bednar None-None 4.70 -- 1.0 --
Daniel Lynch IV None-None 1.59 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.70 ERA Ldr 1.59
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
55%
📊
ROYALS
45%
YANKEES --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 30%
Under 0 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kansas City)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

40.1%

Royals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

NYY By 1-2 runs

16.3%

NYY By 3-4 runs

10.6%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
NEW YORK
4
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 27, 2026 NYY @ KC 7 - 0
May 26, 2026 NYY @ KC 15 - 1
May 25, 2026 NYY @ KC 4 - 3
Apr 19, 2026 KC @ NYY 0 - 7
Apr 18, 2026 KC @ NYY 4 - 13
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Kansas City KC
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
1.041 ▲
OPS
.718
2
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +8400.0% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs New York: 2.0
Hits (L5) +15.0% more
Kansas City: 8.4 vs New York: 7.3
Home Runs (L5) +61.0% more
New York: 0.9 vs Kansas City: 0.3
Runs per Game (Season) +52.7% more
New York: 9.0 vs Kansas City: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 3.0 4
KC Score 4.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.4 / 7.3 5.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 0.9 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 5.8 / 7.8 6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 11.3 / 11.7 13.0 / 14.0
Walks 2.3 / 3.9 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
NYY
KC
NYY
ML
55% 89-72
47% 76-85
56% 90-70
52% 85-77
ATS
57% 91-70
59% 95-66
58% 93-67
53% 86-76
TTL
58% 90-64-7
53% 81-73-7
54% 83-70-7
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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