Home / MLB Projections MLB / Phillies @ Padres PHI @ SD

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

26-27  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, May 25 • 6:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

31-21  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Jhoan Duran
STARTING PITCHER

Jhoan Duran

#59 | Relief Pitcher
@
Yuki Matsui
STARTING PITCHER

Yuki Matsui

#1 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jhoan Duran None-None 1.72 -- 1.0 1
Yuki Matsui None-None 0.00 -- 2.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.72 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
50%
📊
PADRES
50%
PHILLIES --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Diego)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

40.1%

Padres Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

PHI By 1-2 runs

16.3%

PHI By 3-4 runs

10.6%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
4
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
6
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Padres (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 4, 2026 SD @ PHI 4 - 6
Jun 3, 2026 SD @ PHI 2 - 3
Jun 2, 2026 SD @ PHI 2 - 3
May 27, 2026 PHI @ SD 3 - 0
May 26, 2026 PHI @ SD 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
San Diego SD
2
Games Played
2
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.438
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.724
OPS
▲ .925
3
Home Runs
▲ 4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +224.4% more
San Diego: 5.7 vs Philadelphia: 1.8
Runs per Game (Season) +71.4% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
Home Runs (L5) +60.0% more
San Diego: 1.1 vs Philadelphia: 0.5
OPS (Season) +20.1%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Philadelphia: 72.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 3.0 3
SD Score 4.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.3 / 5.9 5.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.5 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 7.6 7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 10.7 / 9.3 5.0 / 9.0
Walks 5.7 / 1.8 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
PHI
SD
PHI
ML
51% 85-83
59% 97-67
51% 85-82
49% 80-84
ATS
54% 91-77
65% 107-57
55% 92-75
51% 83-81
TTL
51% 82-80-6
57% 88-67-9
54% 86-74-6
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 34 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 42 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 45 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 12 hours, 48 minutes ago
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 18 hours, 28 minutes ago