Home / MLB Projections MLB / Diamondbacks @ Giants ARI @ SF

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

28-24  |  Road

6
FINAL
Mon, May 25 • 5:05 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

22-31  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Brandyn Garcia
STARTING PITCHER

Brandyn Garcia

#55 | Relief Pitcher
@
JT Brubaker
STARTING PITCHER

JT Brubaker

#34 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brandyn Garcia None-None 1.04 -- 1.0 1
JT Brubaker None-None 2.96 -- 3.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.04 Ldr ERA 2.96
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 3.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
77%
📊
GIANTS
23%
DIAMONDBACKS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Arizona)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

69.1%

Giants Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ARI By 3-4 runs

18.4%

SF By 1-2 runs

13.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6
ARIZONA
4
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
ARIZONA
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks Win
77% Win Prob
B
Sim Giants Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim Giants (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 ARI @ SF 7 - 1
Aug 28, 2026 ARI @ SF 10 - 6
Aug 27, 2026 ARI @ SF 1 - 6
Jul 1, 2026 SF @ ARI 6 - 4
Jun 30, 2026 SF @ ARI 2 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720 ▲
OPS
.706
166
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +9.4% more
Arizona: 4.6 vs San Francisco: 4.1
OPS (Season) +1.4%
Arizona: 72.0% vs San Francisco: 70.6%
On-Base Pct (Season) +1.2%
Arizona: 31.8% vs San Francisco: 30.6%
Slugging Pct (Season) +0.2%
Arizona: 40.2% vs San Francisco: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 6.0 6
SF Score 4.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.0 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.4 / 10.3 5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 5.3 9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 18.7 / 16.3 9.0 / 16.0
Walks 4.4 / 2.5 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
ARI
SF
ARI
ML
49% 79-81
54% 87-74
53% 85-75
54% 86-74
ATS
62% 100-60
57% 91-70
52% 83-77
56% 89-71
TTL
55% 82-68-10
52% 80-73-8
46% 68-81-11
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 4 hours, 6 minutes ago
Rich Rodriguez's Arizona Legacy: All-Star Team Rekindles Tucson …
newspub_live 16 hours, 2 minutes ago
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
si 1 day, 9 hours ago
Diamondbacks Honor Virahonda and Hagaman as Top Minor Leaguers A…
newschannel10 2 days, 3 hours ago
Shohei Ohtani's Slump Raises Concerns for Dodgers in NLDS
usatoday 2 days, 15 hours ago