MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
25-29 | Road
8
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
25-28 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Gibson
#58 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Rogers
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Gibson | None-None | 11.57 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Tyler Rogers | None-None | 2.63 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
11.57
ERA
Ldr 2.63
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
45%
BLUE JAYS
55%
MARLINS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
18.4%
TOR By 1-2 runs
13.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
5
MIAMI
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 27, 2026
MIA @ TOR
1 - 2
May 26, 2026
MIA @ TOR
1 - 8
May 25, 2026
MIA @ TOR
8 - 2
Aug 24, 2025
TOR @ MIA
3 - 5
Aug 23, 2025
TOR @ MIA
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.727
▲
OPS
.692
168
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+46.7% more
Miami: 1.2
vs
Toronto: 0.7
Errors (L5)
+40.0% more
Miami: 0.7
vs
Toronto: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+13.1% more
Miami: 13.6
vs
Toronto: 11.8
Home Runs (Season)
+9.5% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
5.0
8
TOR Score
3.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.1 / 7.6
10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.2
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
11.6 / 9.1
8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.8 / 13.6
13.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.4
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
MIA
TOR
MIA
ML
46%
74-87
48%
78-84
50%
80-80
55%
88-72
ATS
56%
90-71
56%
91-71
49%
79-81
54%
86-74
TTL
51%
80-76-5
56%
88-69-5
45%
70-85-5
53%
82-73-5
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