ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
29-22 | Road
1
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
30-20 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matthew Liberatore
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Ashby
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | None-None | 4.76 | -- | 5.0 | 10 |
| Aaron Ashby | None-None | 2.18 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.76
ERA
Ldr 2.18
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.0
10 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
40%
BREWERS
60%
CARDINALS
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
STL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
STL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Brewers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
STL @ MIL
4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026
STL @ MIL
2 - 3
Sep 25, 2026
STL @ MIL
4 - 8
Jul 9, 2026
MIL @ STL
8 - 4
Jul 8, 2026
MIL @ STL
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.691
OPS
▲
.743
167
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+103.1% more
Milwaukee: 6.0
vs
St. Louis: 3.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+30.5% more
Milwaukee: 9.8
vs
St. Louis: 7.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+15.8% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
St. Louis: 4.4
OPS (Season)
+5.2%
Milwaukee: 74.3%
vs
St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
4.0
1
MIL Score
5.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.6 / 9.0
11.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.4
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.8 / 7.5
13.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
10.2 / 14.4
16.0 / 2.0
Walks
6.0 / 3.0
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
STL
MIL
STL
ML
62%
101-61
53%
85-74
52%
84-78
52%
84-77
ATS
58%
94-68
56%
89-70
48%
78-84
53%
85-76
TTL
40%
62-92-8
46%
68-81-10
50%
77-77-8
50%
76-75-10
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