Home / MLB Projections MLB / Twins @ White Sox MIN @ CHW

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

26-27  |  Road

1
FINAL
Mon, May 25 • 2:10 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

26-26  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Zebby Matthews
STARTING PITCHER

Zebby Matthews

#52 | Starting Pitcher
@
Bryan Hudson
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Hudson

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Zebby Matthews None-None 2.37 -- 6.0 6
Bryan Hudson None-None 1.42 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.37 ERA Ldr 1.42
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
6 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
60%
📊
WHITE SOX
40%
TWINS --
WHITE SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Minnesota)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

84.1%

White Sox Cover

15.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-2 runs

16.3%

MIN By 3-4 runs

19.6%

CHW By 1-2 runs

7.8%

CHW By 3-4 runs

3.5%

AI Model Projected Score
6
MINNESOTA
2
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
MINNESOTA
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Twins Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim White Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Twins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim White Sox (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 MIN @ CHW 1 - 10
Sep 5, 2026 MIN @ CHW 6 - 4
Sep 4, 2026 MIN @ CHW 1 - 4
Aug 30, 2026 CHW @ MIN 1 - 5
Aug 29, 2026 CHW @ MIN 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Chicago CHW
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.56
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.720
OPS
▲ .826
187 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.5% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Hits (L5) +34.6% more
Minnesota: 10.3 vs Chicago: 6.7
Total Bases (L5) +23.4% more
Minnesota: 14.7 vs Chicago: 11.3
Strikeouts (L5) +10.8% more
Minnesota: 8.6 vs Chicago: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 6.0 1
CHW Score 2.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.7 / 10.3 6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.7 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 8.6 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.3 / 14.7 12.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.0 / 3.0 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
MIN
CHW
MIN
ML
49% 81-86
52% 84-78
56% 94-73
50% 80-81
ATS
59% 99-68
59% 95-67
56% 93-74
59% 95-66
TTL
58% 96-69-2
51% 78-75-9
51% 84-81-2
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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