Home / MLB Projections MLB / Astros @ Cubs HOU @ CHC

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

22-31  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sun, May 24 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

29-23  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Bryan Abreu
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Abreu

#52 | Relief Pitcher
@
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan Abreu None-None 6.88 -- 1.0 --
Caleb Thielbar None-None 3.38 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
6.88 ERA Ldr 3.38
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
75%
📊
CUBS
25%
ASTROS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 39%
Under 0 61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Houston)
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

69.1%

Cubs Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.6%

HOU By 3-4 runs

18.4%

CHC By 1-2 runs

13.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5
HOUSTON
3
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
HOUSTON
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Astros Win
75% Win Prob
B
Sim Cubs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Astros (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim Cubs (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 24, 2026 HOU @ CHC 8 - 5
May 23, 2026 HOU @ CHC 3 - 0
May 22, 2026 HOU @ CHC 4 - 2
Jun 29, 2025 CHC @ HOU 0 - 2
Jun 28, 2025 CHC @ HOU 12 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Chicago CHC
2
Games Played
2
3.00 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.169 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.229
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.354 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.582 ▲
OPS
.374
4 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +83.3% more
Houston: 3.0 vs Chicago: 0.5
Home Runs (L5) +60.0% more
Houston: 1.2 vs Chicago: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +36.7% more
Houston: 10.4 vs Chicago: 6.6
Hits (L5) +31.4% more
Houston: 6.4 vs Chicago: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 5.0 8
CHC Score 3.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 4.4 / 6.4 7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 1.2 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 7.0 8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 6.6 / 10.4 11.0 / 19.0
Walks 3.7 / 3.4 2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
4%MONEY96%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
HOU
CHC
HOU
ML
58% 93-68
50% 81-82
51% 82-79
47% 77-87
ATS
61% 97-63-1
56% 91-72
47% 75-85-1
55% 90-74
TTL
52% 81-74-6
45% 70-84-9
46% 72-83-6
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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