NEW YORK
METSNYM
22-30 | Road
0
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
24-29 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Devin Williams
#38 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Pete Fairbanks
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Williams | None-None | 6.35 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Pete Fairbanks | None-None | 7.62 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.35 Ldr
ERA
7.62
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
46%
MARLINS
54%
METS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
16.3%
MIA By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5
NEW YORK
Miami
4
MIAMI
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Miami
6
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Loss
46% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
NYM @ MIA
15 - 14
Sep 8, 2026
NYM @ MIA
7 - 5
Sep 7, 2026
NYM @ MIA
9 - 4
Aug 2, 2026
MIA @ NYM
2 - 0
Aug 1, 2026
MIA @ NYM
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.705
OPS
▲
.727
204
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+17.6% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Walks (L5)
+13.1% more
New York: 2.9
vs
Miami: 2.5
Home Runs (L5)
+53.0% more
Miami: 1.3
vs
New York: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+48.4% more
Miami: 12.8
vs
New York: 8.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
5.0
0
MIA Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 5.5
9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 7.4
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.8 / 8.7
15.0 / 5.0
Walks
2.5 / 2.9
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
NYM
MIA
NYM
ML
48%
78-84
50%
79-80
55%
88-72
48%
76-83
ATS
56%
91-71
58%
93-66
54%
86-74
49%
78-81
TTL
56%
88-69-5
55%
80-66-13
53%
82-73-5
51%
74-72-13
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