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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

20-32  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, May 24 • 12:35 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

22-29  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Kenley Jansen
STARTING PITCHER

Kenley Jansen

#74 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brandon Young
STARTING PITCHER

Brandon Young

#63 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kenley Jansen None-None 5.02 -- 1.0 --
Brandon Young None-None 3.47 -- 6.2 4
None-None W-L None-None
5.02 ERA Ldr 3.47
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.2
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
32%
📊
ORIOLES
68%
TIGERS --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Baltimore)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

30.9%

Orioles Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

DET By 1-2 runs

13.6%

DET By 3-4 runs

7.8%

BAL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

BAL By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4
DETROIT
6
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Orioles Win
68% Win Prob
C
Sim Orioles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Orioles (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Orioles (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim o8.0 Push
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 29, 2026 BAL @ DET 10 - 9
Jul 28, 2026 BAL @ DET 0 - 14
Jul 27, 2026 BAL @ DET 8 - 5
May 24, 2026 DET @ BAL 3 - 5
May 22, 2026 DET @ BAL 4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Baltimore BAL
162 ▲
Games Played
161
4.46
Runs / Game
4.46
.241 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.720 ▲
OPS
.711
181
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +99.0% more
Baltimore: 1.8 vs Detroit: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +69.6% more
Baltimore: 17.7 vs Detroit: 10.4
Hits (L5) +61.1% more
Baltimore: 10.2 vs Detroit: 6.3
Home Runs (Season) +9.9% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Detroit: 181.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 4.0 3
BAL Score 6.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.2 / 6.3 5.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 0.8 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 8.2 6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 17.7 / 10.4 12.0 / 8.0
Walks 2.8 / 2.9 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
DET
BAL
DET
ML
53% 83-73
54% 86-73
57% 90-69
54% 87-73
ATS
61% 95-60-1
64% 101-58
57% 90-68-1
57% 91-69
TTL
54% 81-70-5
46% 69-81-9
51% 78-75-6
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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