Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Diamondbacks COL @ ARI

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

20-33  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, May 24 • 4:10 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

27-24  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Brennan Bernardino
STARTING PITCHER

Brennan Bernardino

#83 | Relief Pitcher
@
Taylor Clarke
STARTING PITCHER

Taylor Clarke

#45 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brennan Bernardino None-None 3.54 -- 1.0 2
Taylor Clarke None-None 1.99 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.54 ERA Ldr 1.99
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
31%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
69%
ROCKIES --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Colorado)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

84.1%

Diamondbacks Cover

15.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

COL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

COL By 3-4 runs

19.6%

ARI By 1-2 runs

7.8%

ARI By 3-4 runs

3.5%

AI Model Projected Score
7
COLORADO
3
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
5
COLORADO
6
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockies Loss
31% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockies (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim Diamondbacks (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 ARI @ COL 12 - 8
Sep 23, 2026 ARI @ COL 5 - 3
Sep 22, 2026 ARI @ COL 7 - 2
Aug 12, 2026 COL @ ARI 6 - 4
Aug 11, 2026 COL @ ARI 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.739 ▲
OPS
.720
180 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +35.9% more
Colorado: 3.5 vs Arizona: 2.3
Errors (L5) +30.0% more
Colorado: 0.3 vs Arizona: 0.0
Strikeouts (L5) +9.7% more
Colorado: 6.6 vs Arizona: 5.9
Home Runs (Season) +7.8% more
Colorado: 180.0 vs Arizona: 166.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 7.0 1
ARI Score 3.0 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.9 / 7.6 13.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 5.9 / 6.6 4.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.9 / 9.8 23.0 / 6.0
Walks 2.3 / 3.5 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
14%MONEY86%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
COL
ARI
COL
ML
54% 87-74
60% 97-64
54% 86-74
55% 88-73
ATS
57% 91-70
60% 97-64
56% 89-71
52% 83-78
TTL
52% 80-73-8
60% 93-62-6
49% 73-77-9
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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