SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
25-28 | Road
6
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
21-31 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Ferrer
#45 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Lucas Erceg
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Ferrer | None-None | 1.88 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Lucas Erceg | None-None | 4.43 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.88 Ldr
ERA
4.43
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
58%
ROYALS
42%
MARINERS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
30%
Under 0
70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SEA By 3-4 runs
18.4%
KC By 1-2 runs
13.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
6
SEATTLE
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mariners
Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mariners (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Royals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 24, 2026
SEA @ KC
6 - 8
May 23, 2026
SEA @ KC
0 - 5
May 22, 2026
SEA @ KC
2 - 0
May 3, 2026
KC @ SEA
4 - 1
May 2, 2026
KC @ SEA
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
4.26
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.693
OPS
▲
.718
182
▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+42.0% more
Seattle: 0.7
vs
Kansas City: 0.3
Home Runs (L5)
+35.0% more
Seattle: 0.8
vs
Kansas City: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+26.5% more
Seattle: 8.4
vs
Kansas City: 6.2
Home Runs (Season)
+6.6% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
Kansas City: 170.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
6.0
6
KC Score
4.0
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.7
0.0 / 3.0
Hits
7.1 / 4.9
11.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.2 / 8.4
5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
9.4 / 8.5
15.0 / 20.0
Walks
2.4 / 2.6
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
KC
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
SEA
KC
SEA
ML
55%
89-72
50%
81-81
56%
90-70
52%
85-77
ATS
57%
91-70
60%
98-64
58%
93-67
59%
95-67
TTL
58%
90-64-7
56%
85-67-10
54%
83-70-7
53%
81-71-10
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