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ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

26-26  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sun, May 24 • 4:10 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

31-20  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Hogan Harris
STARTING PITCHER

Hogan Harris

#36 | Relief Pitcher
@
Bradgley Rodriguez
STARTING PITCHER

Bradgley Rodriguez

#72 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Hogan Harris None-None 2.96 -- 0.1 1
Bradgley Rodriguez None-None 1.78 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
2.96 ERA Ldr 1.78
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
29%
📊
PADRES
71%
ATHLETICS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
AthleticsATH (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

40.1%

Padres Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATH By 3-4 runs

16.3%

SD By 1-2 runs

16.3%

SD By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5
ATHLETICS
4
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
6
ATHLETICS
4
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Win
29% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Athletics (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 24, 2026 ATH @ SD 5 - 2
May 23, 2026 ATH @ SD 0 - 2
May 22, 2026 ATH @ SD 3 - 7
Apr 9, 2025 SD @ ATH 2 - 1
Apr 8, 2025 SD @ ATH 4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.719
OPS
▲ .925
194 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +97.9% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Hits (L5) +30.4% more
Athletics: 7.0 vs San Diego: 4.9
Strikeouts (L5) +11.2% more
Athletics: 8.3 vs San Diego: 7.4
Home Runs (L5) +83.0% more
San Diego: 1.1 vs Athletics: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 5.0 5
SD Score 4.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 4.9 / 7.0 9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.4 / 8.3 11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 9.0 / 9.3 14.0 / 15.0
Walks 5.1 / 4.4 7.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
ATH
SD
ATH
ML
51% 85-83
59% 95-67
51% 85-82
54% 87-74
ATS
54% 91-77
52% 84-78
55% 92-75
50% 81-80
TTL
51% 82-80-6
54% 84-73-5
54% 86-74-6
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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