CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
31-23 | Road
3
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
26-26 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jonathan Bowlan
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Smith | None-None | 2.45 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Bowlan | None-None | 4.96 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.45 Ldr
ERA
4.96
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
58%
PHILLIES
42%
GUARDIANS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
CLE By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
10.6%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Philadelphia
6
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Loss
42% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Phillies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 24, 2026
CLE @ PHI
3 - 1
May 23, 2026
CLE @ PHI
0 - 3
May 22, 2026
CLE @ PHI
1 - 0
May 11, 2025
PHI @ CLE
3 - 0
May 10, 2025
PHI @ CLE
7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.19
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.696
OPS
▲
.724
162
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Slugging Pct (Season)
+5.8%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Cleveland: 38.0%
OPS (Season)
+2.8%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
Cleveland: 69.6%
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.8%
Philadelphia: 24.7%
vs
Cleveland: 23.9%
Home Runs (Season)
+98.1% more
Cleveland: 162.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
5.0
3
PHI Score
6.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.9 / 5.5
6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 10.4
5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
8.9 / 9.7
10.0 / 13.0
Walks
1.7 / 3.7
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
CLE
PHI
CLE
ML
59%
97-67
54%
87-74
49%
80-84
49%
80-82
ATS
65%
107-57
58%
93-68
51%
83-81
59%
95-67
TTL
57%
88-67-9
55%
88-71-2
51%
78-76-9
43%
69-90-2
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
Trump Surprises Clemens with Medal of Freedom Announcement at Te…
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …