PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
26-26 | Road
4
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
25-27 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gregory Soto
#31 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Braydon Fisher
#63 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Soto | None-None | 2.22 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Braydon Fisher | None-None | 2.73 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.22 Ldr
ERA
2.73
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
25%
BLUE JAYS
75%
PIRATES
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
75% Win Prob
B
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 24, 2026
PIT @ TOR
4 - 1
May 23, 2026
PIT @ TOR
2 - 5
May 22, 2026
PIT @ TOR
2 - 6
Aug 20, 2025
TOR @ PIT
1 - 2
Aug 19, 2025
TOR @ PIT
7 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.734
▲
OPS
.692
186
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+48.0% more
Toronto: 1.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+32.3% more
Toronto: 11.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 8.7
Total Bases (L5)
+32.1% more
Toronto: 14.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 10.7
Errors (L5)
+56.6% more
Pittsburgh: 1.1
vs
Toronto: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.0
4
TOR Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.1 / 8.0
5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.5
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
11.4 / 8.7
12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
14.2 / 10.7
7.0 / 15.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.1
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
PIT
TOR
PIT
ML
46%
74-87
52%
82-77
50%
80-80
52%
85-78
ATS
56%
90-71
54%
86-73
49%
79-81
50%
81-82
TTL
51%
80-76-5
47%
72-81-6
45%
70-85-5
50%
79-78-6
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