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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

24-27  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, May 23 • 4:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

22-28  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Taylor Rogers
STARTING PITCHER

Taylor Rogers

#55 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brayan Bello
STARTING PITCHER

Brayan Bello

#66 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Taylor Rogers None-None 3.79 -- 0.1 1
Brayan Bello None-None 6.43 -- 5.0 5
None-None W-L None-None
3.79 Ldr ERA 6.43
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
59%
📊
RED SOX
41%
TWINS --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Boston)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

40.1%

Red Sox Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

MIN By 1-2 runs

16.3%

MIN By 3-4 runs

10.6%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
MINNESOTA
6
BOSTON
Simulated Score
3
MINNESOTA
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Loss
41% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Sim Red Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 24, 2026 MIN @ BOS 6 - 5
May 23, 2026 MIN @ BOS 4 - 2
May 22, 2026 MIN @ BOS 8 - 6
Apr 15, 2026 BOS @ MIN 9 - 5
Apr 14, 2026 BOS @ MIN 0 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.720 ▲
OPS
.409
187 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +22.0% more
Boston: 1.0 vs Minnesota: 0.8
Hits (L5) +15.6% more
Boston: 9.4 vs Minnesota: 8.2
Strikeouts (L5) +10.5% more
Boston: 9.6 vs Minnesota: 8.7
Home Runs (Season) +98.9% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 5.0 4
BOS Score 6.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.4 / 8.2 5.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.5 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 8.7 9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 14.6 / 14.4 6.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.8 / 3.0 1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
MIN
BOS
MIN
ML
50% 80-80
52% 84-78
47% 76-87
50% 80-81
ATS
58% 93-67
59% 95-67
48% 79-84
59% 95-66
TTL
46% 72-83-5
51% 78-75-9
47% 74-83-6
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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