Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Spurs OKC @ SA

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

64-18  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sun, May 24 • 8:00 PM ET
Frost Bank Center
View Odds Details →

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

62-20  |  Home

103
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
65%
📊
SPURS
35%
THUNDER --
SPURS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
214.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 85%
Under 0 15%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 SpursSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

72.6%

Spurs Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

26.8%

OKC By 8-14 points

24.3%

SA By 1-7 points

16.9%

SA By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
110
OKLAHOMA CITY
104
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
109
OKLAHOMA CITY
122
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Loss
65% Win Prob
C
Sim Spurs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
C
Sim Spurs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u219.0 Win
Proj Total: 214.0
D
Sim u219.0 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 20, 2026 OKC @ SA 116 - 104
May 30, 2026 SA @ OKC 111 - 103
May 28, 2026 OKC @ SA 91 - 118
May 26, 2026 SA @ OKC 114 - 127
May 24, 2026 OKC @ SA 82 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +29.8% more
Oklahoma City: 10.7 vs San Antonio: 7.5
Assists (L5) +10.6% more
Oklahoma City: 28.3 vs San Antonio: 25.3
Turnovers (L5) +10.2% more
Oklahoma City: 11.9 vs San Antonio: 10.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.2%
Oklahoma City: 40.3% vs San Antonio: 35.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 110.0 82
SA Score 104.0 103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 40.3 27.0 / 18.0
Assists 25.3 / 28.3 25.0 / 22.0
Blocks 7.1 / 3.5 10.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 48.4 39.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 84.4 / 82.9 75.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 46.6 / 40.1 52.0 / 47.0
Steals 7.5 / 10.7 11.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 17.4 / 11.8 13.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -4.3
SA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +2.0
SA
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -15.3
SA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
OKC
SA
OKC
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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