OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
64-18 | Road
82
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
62-20 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
65%
SPURS
35%
THUNDER
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
214.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
85%
Under 0
15%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
OKC By 1-7 points
26.8%
OKC By 8-14 points
24.3%
SA By 1-7 points
16.9%
SA By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
110
OKLAHOMA CITY
San Antonio
104
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
109
OKLAHOMA CITY
San Antonio
122
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Thunder
Loss
65% Win Prob
C
Sim
Spurs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Thunder (-3)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
C
Sim
Spurs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u219.0
Win
Proj Total: 214.0
D
Sim
u219.0
Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 30, 2026
SA @ OKC
111 - 103
May 28, 2026
OKC @ SA
91 - 118
May 26, 2026
SA @ OKC
114 - 127
May 24, 2026
OKC @ SA
82 - 103
May 22, 2026
OKC @ SA
123 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+29.8% more
Oklahoma City: 10.7
vs
San Antonio: 7.5
Assists (L5)
+10.6% more
Oklahoma City: 28.3
vs
San Antonio: 25.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.2%
Oklahoma City: 40.3%
vs
San Antonio: 35.2%
Blocks (L5)
+105.5% more
San Antonio: 7.1
vs
Oklahoma City: 3.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
110.0
82
SA Score
104.0
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.2 / 40.3
27.0 / 18.0
Assists
25.3 / 28.3
25.0 / 22.0
Blocks
7.1 / 3.4
10.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 48.4
39.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
84.4 / 82.9
75.0 / 89.0
Rebounding
46.6 / 40.1
52.0 / 47.0
Steals
7.5 / 10.7
11.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
17.4 / 11.8
13.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
SA
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
OKC
SA
OKC
ML
60%
111-73
70%
80-34
58%
61-44
48%
46-49
ATS
58%
107-76-1
73%
83-30-1
58%
61-44
48%
46-49
TTL
74%
134-47-3
67%
76-38
100%
105-0
100%
95-0
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