Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Diamondbacks COL @ ARI

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

20-32  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, May 23 • 10:10 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

26-24  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Karros
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Karros

#12 | Third Base
@
Kevin Ginkel
STARTING PITCHER

Kevin Ginkel

#37 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Karros None-None -- -- -- --
Kevin Ginkel None-None 3.05 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.05
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
40%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
60%
ROCKIES --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Arizona)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

40.1%

Diamondbacks Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

COL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

COL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ARI By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
COLORADO
4
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
4
COLORADO
6
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Diamondbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Diamondbacks (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 ARI @ COL 12 - 8
Sep 23, 2026 ARI @ COL 5 - 3
Sep 22, 2026 ARI @ COL 7 - 2
Aug 12, 2026 COL @ ARI 6 - 4
Aug 11, 2026 COL @ ARI 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.739 ▲
OPS
.720
180 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +47.0% more
Arizona: 0.5 vs Colorado: 0.1
Total Bases (L5) +23.6% more
Arizona: 11.4 vs Colorado: 9.2
Walks (L5) +50.0% more
Colorado: 3.8 vs Arizona: 1.9
Errors (L5) +44.0% more
Colorado: 0.5 vs Arizona: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.0 4
ARI Score 4.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.9 / 7.4 11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.1 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 5.4 / 5.9 7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 9.2 16.0 / 11.0
Walks 1.9 / 3.8 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
COL
ARI
COL
ML
54% 87-74
60% 97-64
54% 86-74
55% 88-73
ATS
57% 91-70
60% 97-64
56% 89-71
52% 83-78
TTL
52% 80-73-8
60% 93-62-6
49% 73-77-9
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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