Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Royals SEA @ KC

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

25-27  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, May 23 • 4:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

20-31  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
George Kirby
STARTING PITCHER

George Kirby

#68 | Starting Pitcher
@
Stephen Kolek
STARTING PITCHER

Stephen Kolek

#32 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
George Kirby None-None 3.54 -- 6.0 3
Stephen Kolek None-None 2.77 -- 9.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.54 ERA Ldr 2.77
-- WHIP --
6.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 9.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
73%
📊
ROYALS
27%
MARINERS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
16.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Seattle)
MarinersSEA (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

84.1%

Royals Cover

15.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

SEA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

SEA By 3-4 runs

19.6%

KC By 1-2 runs

7.8%

KC By 3-4 runs

3.5%

AI Model Projected Score
10
SEATTLE
6
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
2
SEATTLE
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mariners Loss
73% Win Prob
B
Sim Royals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mariners (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim Royals (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 16.0
D
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 24, 2026 SEA @ KC 6 - 8
May 23, 2026 SEA @ KC 0 - 5
May 22, 2026 SEA @ KC 2 - 0
May 3, 2026 KC @ SEA 4 - 1
May 2, 2026 KC @ SEA 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.693
OPS
▲ .718
182 ▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +46.4% more
Seattle: 1.1 vs Kansas City: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5) +22.1% more
Seattle: 10.6 vs Kansas City: 8.3
Errors (L5) +14.0% more
Seattle: 0.6 vs Kansas City: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +11.5% more
Seattle: 10.3 vs Kansas City: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 10.0 0
KC Score 6.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.2 / 5.3 9.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 10.6 2.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 9.1 / 10.3 10.0 / 5.0
Walks 3.2 / 3.0 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
22%MONEY78%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
SEA
KC
SEA
ML
55% 89-72
50% 81-81
56% 90-70
52% 85-77
ATS
57% 91-70
60% 98-64
58% 93-67
59% 95-67
TTL
58% 90-64-7
56% 85-67-10
54% 83-70-7
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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